Trump guilty verdict: Evercore shares 5 key things to watch

A New York jury has convicted Donald Trump in the high-profile hush money trial amid his bid to reclaim the presidency. After two days of deliberation, the 12-member jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts, including falsifying documents to cover up a payment to silence a porn star before the 2016 election.

Sentencing is scheduled for July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention on July 15, where Trump is expected to be formally nominated for president.

Following the verdict, analysts at Evercore ISI identified five key factors to monitor regarding the impact of the jury’s decision on the presidential race:

1. Will Trump Receive a Prison Sentence?: After the verdict, Trump was released on his own recognizance with sentencing set for July 11. He faces up to four years in prison, but penalties could be limited to fines, restitution, and probation. Evercore analysts noted that his conduct during the trial might negatively influence his sentencing, potentially leading to harsher punishments. They added, “Given the appeals processes, there isn’t any real chance that President Trump will start any version of a sentence before November. However, if the judge does sentence him to jail, that alone will elicit a particularly strong reaction from the Republican base.”

2. Which Political Base Gains More Motivation from the Verdict?: Evercore analysts expect the verdict to energize both political bases, with significant fundraising efforts from each side. Democrats, who were unlikely to vote for Trump, might be more motivated to support Biden to prevent Trump’s reelection. Republicans, on the other hand, could view the trial as unfair persecution, further solidifying their support for Trump. The analysts noted, “Biden is the candidate more in need of base motivation right now, as his coalition has been fracturing due to the war in the Middle East, inflation, and general concern about the direction of the country.”

3. How Will “Disengaged Voters” React?: Data shows Trump’s lead is partly driven by “disengaged voters,” those who don’t closely follow politics or didn’t vote in 2020. The historic verdict is likely to capture their attention, but predicting their response is challenging. If reactions from Democratic and Republican bases cancel each other out, the impact will heavily depend on how this group processes the new developments.

4. What Will the Polls Show Next Month?: Evercore’s team suggested that the news of the verdict might change the narrative from Biden’s sagging poll numbers, despite dramatic headlines and unending speculation on cable news over the weekend. They emphasized that the important factor is not the immediate reactions but how these events fold into the larger narrative developing in the race.

5. What’s Next in the Other Cases?: While the New York case is the only one expected to be fully tried before the election, other key legal moments are anticipated in the coming weeks. Evercore analysts noted, “We are still waiting to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the January 6th Federal trial can proceed given the Presidential immunity claims. We don’t expect much near-term significant action in Georgia or in the classified documents case in Florida.”

Additionally, it is important to note that President Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, faces a trial starting June 3, which could potentially distract the Biden campaign. Some might argue that Hunter’s legal issues could offset the impact of these trials, as noted by Evercore analysts.