However, rising oil inventories have raised concerns about weaker demand, analysts at ANZ noted in a client briefing. U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased by 1.4 million barrels in the week ending August 9, in contrast to expectations of a 2.2 million barrel drawdown. This marks the first inventory build since late June.
China’s factory output growth slowed in July, while refinery output declined for the fourth consecutive month, highlighting the uneven nature of the country’s economic recovery, which also limited the market’s potential gains.
The market’s attention will shift to July’s U.S. retail sales growth following the mixed data from China, according to Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA. He added that a disappointing figure could trigger a short-term bearish move in oil prices.
Overall, analysts have varying views on the future price trajectory of the market.
Nomura’s Takashima expects oil prices to remain under pressure, driven by ongoing concerns that global demand, particularly from China, will remain sluggish. He predicts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude could fall towards the $72 level seen in August.
On the other hand, independent market analyst Tina Teng believes that oil prices could rise in the third quarter, despite China’s slowdown. She cites factors such as conflict in the Middle East, rate cuts by central banks, and a weakening U.S. dollar as potential drivers. Teng forecasts Brent crude prices could reach $90 per barrel.
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