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Oil prices edge down on easing geopolitical risks, weak China demand

Oil prices declined on Tuesday as Israel accepted a proposal aimed at resolving disagreements that have been hindering a ceasefire deal in Gaza, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

As of 0600 GMT, Brent crude had dropped by 67 cents, or 0.86%, to $76.99 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, set to expire on Tuesday, were down 62 cents, or 0.8%, at $73.75 a barrel. The more actively traded second-month contract declined by 63 cents, or 0.86%, to $73.03 a barrel.

On Monday, Brent had fallen by about 2.5%, while WTI decreased by 3%.

“Prices are facing headwinds from geopolitical developments in the Middle East and concerns about China’s demand outlook,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG. He noted that weak economic data from China has raised doubts about the country’s oil demand prospects.

The likelihood of a ceasefire deal in Gaza has increased, leading market participants to reduce their concerns about geopolitical tensions disrupting oil supplies.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a “bridging proposal” from Washington to resolve issues blocking a ceasefire deal in Gaza and urged Hamas to do the same.

In addition, supply concerns eased as production at Libya’s Sharara oilfield increased to approximately 85,000 barrels per day, aiming to supply the Zawia oil refinery. This followed Libya’s National Oil Corporation’s declaration of force majeure on oil exports from the field on August 7, due to a blockade by protesters that affected production at the 300,000-bpd field.

On the demand side, concerns about China’s economic challenges have put pressure on oil prices. After a weak second quarter, China’s economy continued to lose momentum in July, with new home prices falling at their fastest pace in nine years, slowing industrial output, declining export and investment growth, and rising unemployment.

“Demand concerns centered around China continue to linger,” ING analysts noted in a report to clients. “Recent data suggests that apparent oil demand in China continued to trend lower in July, making speculators hesitant to enter the market.”

Investors are also awaiting signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding its next interest rate decision. According to a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining three meetings in 2024. Lower interest rates could reduce borrowing costs and potentially boost oil demand in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.

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