Oil prices rose over 1% in quiet trading on Monday due to public holidays in Britain and the United States, following a downbeat week driven by concerns over U.S. interest rates amid persistent inflation.
The Brent crude July contract increased by $1, or 1.2%, to settle at $83.12 a barrel. The more active August contract climbed $1.04 to $82.88. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 93 cents at $78.65.
Last week, Brent fell about 2% and WTI nearly 3% after Federal Reserve minutes revealed that some officials would consider raising interest rates further if necessary to control stubborn inflation.
“Sentiment in the oil complex … has been skittish as investors are constantly recalibrating expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Recent data from Western economies have shifted rate cut expectations depending on geography. On Monday, key European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers indicated that the bank has room to cut interest rates as inflation slows but must proceed cautiously.
Inflation figures for the euro zone are due on Friday, and economists believe an expected increase to 2.5% should not prevent the ECB from easing policy next week.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, expected this week, will be closely watched for further signals about interest rate policy. The index, due for release on May 31, is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Additionally, German inflation data on Wednesday and euro zone readings on Friday will be scrutinized for indications of a potential European rate cut that traders anticipate next week.
Attention will also be on the upcoming meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia. The meeting will take place online on June 2.
OPEC+ sources have indicated that an extension of output cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day is likely.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its global oil demand forecast for 2030 and expects consumption to peak by 2034 due to a potential slowdown in electric vehicle adoption, keeping refineries operating at higher-than-average rates until the end of this decade
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